Woohoo, spring training is upon us. Pitchers and catchers have been down in Arizona and Florida for a week and within the next couple of days every team will have their full roster in camp. So here is my preview for the 2008 Major League Baseball season.
First things first, I must predict the divisional finishes.....
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL East
1.Boston
2.New York
3.Tampa Bay
4.Toronto
5.Baltimore
AL Central
1.Cleveland
2.Detroit
3.Kansas City
4.Chicago
5.Minnesota
AL West
1.Anaheim
2.Seattle
3.Texas
4.Oakland
AL Wild Card: Detroit
AL Champion: Boston
NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL East
1.New York
2.Philadelphia
3.Atlanta
4.Washington
5.Florida
NL Central
1.Chicago
2.Milwaukee
3.Cincinnati
4.Houston
5.St. Louis
6.Pittsburgh
NL West
1.Arizona
2.Colorado
3.San Diego
4.Los Angeles
5.San Francisco
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia
NL Champion: New York
World Series Champion: Boston Red Sox (3rd time in 5 seasons)
AWARDS:
AL MVP: Vladmir Guerrerro, RF Anaheim
AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett, Boston
AL Manager of Year: Eric Wedge, Cleveland
NL MVP: David Howard, 1B Philadelphia
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, New York
NL Manager of Year: Lou Piniella, Chicago
MLB Power Rankings (all teams)....
1.Boston Red Sox
2.Cleveland Indians
3.New York Mets
4.Anaheim Angels
5.Detroit Tigers
6.Chicago Cubs
7.Arizona Diamondbacks
8.New York Yankees
9.Philadelphia Phillies
10.Seattle Mariners
11.Colorado Rockies
12.Kansas City Royals
13.San Diego Padres
14.Milwaukee Brewers
15.Tampa Bay Devil Rays
16.Cincinnati Reds
17.Atlanta Braves
18.Chicago White Sox
19.Toronto Blue Jays
20.Los Angeles Dodgers
21.Texas Rangers
22.Baltimore Orioles
23.Oakland A's
24.Houston Astros
25.Minnesota Twins
26.St. Louis Cardinals
27.Washington Nationals
28.Florida Marlins
29.San Francisco Giants
30.Pittsburgh Pirates
Teams ranked 1-11 will finish over .500, teams 12-14 will finish right around .500. Teams 14-20 will lose 85-90 games. Teams 21-28 will lose 90-98 games. Teams 29-30 will lose 100-110 games.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Monday, February 18, 2008
POKER TIPS AND ADVICE
I thought today would be a good day to go off topic and discuss one of my favorite hobbies.....poker. I consider myself to be a good amateur player, so I decided I should blog my tips and advice for other amateur players out there.
My tips are specifically for the low-mid level No-Limit Hold 'em games ranging between $1-$2 blinds up to $5-$10 blinds. Many of these tips may not help you much if you're playing other games.
First things first, you need to know what hands to play and when and how to play them......
I am not a fan of early position limping because I think you'll end up losing more money doing this than you think. Position in poker is so important and early position is not good position. So when you're in early position you want to try your best to eliminate as many players behind you as possible. There are a lot of loose players in low-limit hold 'em games, so raising won't eliminate as many players as it would it a higher limit game, but it will eliminate more players than you may think.
The only hands I can understand someone limping in early position is hands like J-Q, K-Q, A-Q, or A-J. I know a lot of players think limping in pre-flop with a big pocket pair is a sneaky and creative play, but I would disagree. It may work if you get someone behind you to raise and then you can re-raise, but if no one behind you raises you're pretty much screwed most of the time. Odds are you're not good enough to lay down your Aces (and maybe not Kings either) later in the hand, so you want as few of callers as possible when you have a big pair. Aces are not as strong against 4-5 other players as you might think. What happens when the big blind hits 2-pair with his 10-5 offsuit because you didn't force him out of the hand with your pre-flop raise? Like I said, you're probably not good enough to get away from the hand, so instead of winning a medium or small sized pot with your pre-flop raise with Aces you're going to end up losing a big pot. I'll take my chances with Aces against any hand, but I will never be confident I'm going to end up with the winning hand when there are more than a couple of pre-flop callers even if I have Aces or Kings.
Now, if you have an average hand or a suited connector, you're going to end up giving your chips away in the long run if you continue to pre-flop limp with them in early position. Sure, when you hit your hand, you can win a good sized pot, but how often do those 5-6 suited cards actually hit? Not very often. Those hands are easy to get away from if you don't connect on the flop, but it still cost you the amount of the big blind just to see that flop. And while it may seem like chump change to see a flop cheap, it will add up to a lot of money lost in the long run. And since there's a lot of players behind you, there's a good chance somebody will raise and you can't call a raise with a crappy hand. So, in that scenario, you just donated the size of the big blind for nothing. If you want to throw money away like that, just deposit a few bucks into my bank account every time you're dealt a marginal hand in early position. If you play often enough, you'll make me a rich man!
So now I'll move onto middle and late position hands you should limp in with. I am assuming a full or nearly full table here (8-11 players)....
Middle position......
Suited connectors ranging from 7-8 to A-Q (anything under J-10 the cards should be within 1 number of each other........that would exclude hands like 10-6 suited or 5-8, etc.)
Any suited Ace ranging from A-7 to A-Q
Unsuited connectors ranging from J-10 to A-Q
Pocket pairs ranging from 7's to 10's
Late position.......
Suited connectors ranging from 5-6 to A-Q (excluding anything like 5-9 or 6-10)
Any suited Ace that is not with a King
Any pocket pair ranging from 2's to J's
Unsuited connectors from 7-8 to A-Q (excluding 7-9 or 7-10)
Small blind.......
Any pocket pair ranging from 2's to J's
Any suited connector other than A-K
Any unsuited connector other than 2 or 3 with a 2,3,4,5,6, or 7
Any 2 suited cards other than A-K
Any unsuited Ace other than A-K
Any unsuited King
Any other hand that is not on that list or on my list below of hands to raise with......FOLD!
Hands to raise with.......
Early position.....
A-Q, suited or not
A-K, suited or not
Pocket pairs ranging from 9's to Aces
Middle position......
A-K, suited or not
Pocket pairs ranging from 9's to Aces
Late position......
A-K, suited or not
Pocket pairs ranging from Q's to Aces
Small blind or big blind....
A-K, suited or not
Pocket pairs ranging from Q's to Aces
Hands to re-raise pre-flop with.....
Early position.....
Pocket pairs ranging from Q's to Aces
Middle position.....
Aces or Kings
Late position.....
Aces or Kings
Small or big blind.....
Aces or Kings
Hands you can just call a raise with pre-flop....
Early position......
Pocket pairs ranging from 10's to J's
A-K, suited or not
A-Q suited
K-Q suited
Middle position.....
Pocket pairs ranging from 10's to J''s
A-K, suited or not
A-Q, suited or not
K-Q suited
Late position.....
Pocket pairs ranging from 8's to Q's
A-K, suited or not
A-Q, suited or not
K-Q, suited or not
J-10 suited
A-J, suited or not
A-10 suited
K-J suited
J-Q suited
Small blind or big blind.....
Pocket pairs ranging from 7's to Q's
A-K, suited or not
A-Q suited
K-Q suited
And maybe I can accept calling a raise in the blinds with hands like A-J, K-Q offsuit, or A-10 suited. Those aren't horrible calls. When choosing to call with hands like that make sure the raise was from someone that you consider a loose player and not some tight player that only plays the nuts. Remember that being in the blinds puts you in the worst position once the flop comes, so if you don't hit you're not in a position to bluff at the pot. So be careful with these hands. They're not as good of hands as you might think, especially in this position.
So now that you know what pre-flop hands to play, you're asking yourself "how much do I raise"?
Good question. My biggest word of advice when raising pre-flop is to raise the same amount regardless of what hand you have. If you just raised to $8 pre-flop with Aces, raise to $8 pre-flop with A-K as well. That way nobody at the table will be able to put you on a hand. Another bit of advice is to not over or under raise. Make just the right raise amount. My suggestion on the amount to pre-flop raise is to raise the amount of the pot plus a small blind amount.
So, let's say that you are in first position and this is a $5-$10 blind game, I would raise to $35. The pot will be $25 after your call ($5 small blind, $10 big blind, your $10 call) and then you'd tack on another $10.
Now let's say you're in late position raising and there are 3 limpers, you would raise to $65. Just remember......size of the pot + the amount of a big blind. Stick to that every time and your opponents won't have a clue what hand you've got.
There are a lot of players that over bet or under bet pre-flop and many of them think they're actually good players. Well, they're not. Because if they were good players, they'd know what a big mistake they were making. Not only are they much easier to put on a hand if you study them enough, but they're also risking putting themself in a bad sitution.
Let me explain......
Let's say you raise pre-flop in first position to $20 in a $1-$2 game with A-K and someone behind you comes over the top with a big raise of $80 with a big pocket pair. Even if you're disciplined enough to get away from the hand, you're still out $20 when you could have been out only $7 had you made the correct raise.
Now, let's take the other side of this argument. Say you make that same $20 raise with pocket Aces and nobody calls. You just made a $20 bet to win $3. But had you just raised to $7, you're more likely to get a couple of callers. Like I said earlier, you don't want a ton of callers, but you also don't want everyone to fold against your big hands or you'll never make any money.
One thing I notice at tables full of amateurs is that people just throw out a bet because it sounds right. They don't stop and think about what the correct bet really is or if they're giving away any patterns in their betting. These are things you need to understand so that players won't pick up your betting patterns. Understand that most players at a low-limit table won't pick up many players' betting patterns, but some will. I can. I assure you of that. That's the main thing I'm paying attention to at a poker table. I'll occassionally pick up a couple of physical tells from a player, but the best way to figure out what hand a player has is to catch their betting patterns. Many players bet a certain amount when they have top pair and bet a different amount when they've got the nuts. And a lot of players will raise a certain amount when they've got a big pocket pair and raise a different amount if they've got A-K or something like that. Picking up your opponents betting patterns isn't easy, so you've got to pay close attention to the game. If you do, you'll figure them out on most amateur players. That's why I advise players to stick to a specific bet pre-flop so that it's more difficult to put you on a hand.
PHYSICAL TELLS...
Since I mentioned I can occasionally pick up on an opponents physical tells, here is my list of those tells.....
1.Glancing at their chips after the flop. You really gotta pay close attention to this and you'll only catch it within a split second after the flop. Not everyone does it but a decent percentage of players will. If you watch someone quickly glance at their chips after the flop comes out, be careful, they've probably got a big hand. It must be something subconscious because a lot of players do this. The problem with this is it is tough to pick up. Like I said, you really have to pay close attention.
2.Long stare at the flop = weak hand. If they stare down the flop, they probably missed.
3.Stare at the flop and then quick head turn away = big hand. Proceed with caution!
4.If your opponent makes a bet and then you ask them if they've got a big hand and they shrug their shoulders or say something like "it's okay", get the heck out of the pot, they've got the nuts!
5.Soft bet = big hand. It's their way of making you think they aren't very strong.
6.Forceful bet = weak hand. It's the exact opposite. They're trying to make you think they're strong by intimidating you with a strong bet with the chips. Chances are, they ain't got squat!
One thing you must know is that opponents will occassionally try and throw you off by acting the exact opposite of these tells. I know that because I'll occassionally do this as well. Sometimes I will stare down the flop when I've got the nuts if I'm up against a decent player just to make him think I've got nothing and then he'll bet into me. Like I said earlier, these physical tells are not easy to pick up on. You have to pay close attention and even when you do that, often times you'll see nothing. So stick to figuring out your opponents betting patterns more than you do the physical tells.
One other tell I felt compelled to mention is picking up on your opponent chasing a draw.....
A lot of players play draws differently, but quite a few amateurs will give away the fact that they're on a draw and if they missed or hit that draw on the river.
One way to catch if your opponent is on a flush draw is if the flop is all of the same suit and you see your opponent check his hole cards and then call your bet. Chances are he's chasing that flush. If he already had a made flush, he'd know it. He's checking to make sure he's got a card that is the same suit as what the flop came. So if the fourth card of that suit comes, be afraid.....be very afraid!
Another way to find out if your opponent missed his flush or straight on the river is if the flop came out with 2 suited cards or a couple of connectors and you got called quick on the flop and the turn and then your opponent stares down the board after the river comes. That means he probably missed his draw. So regardless of what hand you are holding.....BET!!!
Again, you must remember that occasionally a player will try and throw you off with these tells, but the fact is most of the time your opponents are giving away information they don't even realize they're giving you.
The last section of my tips is geared towards getting the proper value on your bet and determining if you're getting the right odds to call......
POT ODDS.....
If you don't understand basic math, poker is not for you. You need to understand pot odds in order to be a successful poker player.
Figuring pot odds out isn't that hard. If there is $100 in the pot and it's a $50 bet to you, you are getting 2-1 on your money. In order to call a bet with 2-1 odds, you need to have at least a 34% chance of winning the hand in order to make the call and often times it's best if you only made that call if your percentage chance of winning the hand is higher than that. If you make a 2-1 call when you're 34% to win the hand, in the long run you will basically break even, give or take a little.
One thing you have to take into consideration is implied odds. If you make a call based on getting the right pot odds, you also need to determine how much more money you can win if you hit your hand. To do that, just take a look at your opponents chip stacks and see if there's even a point to making the call if you're on a draw or if you don't think you've got the best hand. If they have very little chips left, you may want to consider folding your drawing hands because you're not going to get paid off on them if you hit. Now, if they have a lot of money behind, you might want to think otherwise if you are getting the correct odds to call.
Another important point to understand in determining pot odds is you have to put your opponent on a hand first. You may be on a flush draw with a bet to you but are up against a set and so your odds of winning the hand with a flush is less than if he has top pair because even if you hit your flush, the board could still pair up and give him a full house. I discussed above how to put your opponent on a hand and that is to pick up their betting patterns. Once you master that you'll do a better job of putting them on a hand and than it will be easier to figure out if you are getting the right odds to make a call.
Once you put your opponent on a hand, you need to learn what percentage of the time you are going to win the hand. If you're on a flush draw, you will have 9 outs to hit that flush. If you flop 4 cards to a flush, you will hit that flush approximately 36% of the time. Basically, you take your number of out and multiply it by 4 on the flop. If you're on the turn, you would multiply your outs by 2. So a flush draw on the turn will come up on the river about 18% of the time. Now, you might have other outs besides just the flush. For example, let's say you've got A-K of spades and the flop comes J-3-7 with 2 spades and your opponent has Q-J. You not only have the 9 outs for the flush but you've also got 6 more outs (the A and the K). That is 15 outs, so you actually be the favorite in the hand. You're going to end up winning this hand nearly 60% of the time. So, technically, in this scenario you can call any bet.
Here's a chart that will help you determine if you're getting the right odds to make a profitable call (again, remember implied odds as well because that could change these numbers around a bit)....
2-1 odds, you need to be at least 34% to win the hand
3-1 odds, you need to be at least 26%
4-1 odds, you need to be at least 21%
9-1 odds, you need to be at least 11%
The goal of poker if to make profitable bets and calls. If you do that more often than not, you'll end up making money.
My tips are specifically for the low-mid level No-Limit Hold 'em games ranging between $1-$2 blinds up to $5-$10 blinds. Many of these tips may not help you much if you're playing other games.
First things first, you need to know what hands to play and when and how to play them......
I am not a fan of early position limping because I think you'll end up losing more money doing this than you think. Position in poker is so important and early position is not good position. So when you're in early position you want to try your best to eliminate as many players behind you as possible. There are a lot of loose players in low-limit hold 'em games, so raising won't eliminate as many players as it would it a higher limit game, but it will eliminate more players than you may think.
The only hands I can understand someone limping in early position is hands like J-Q, K-Q, A-Q, or A-J. I know a lot of players think limping in pre-flop with a big pocket pair is a sneaky and creative play, but I would disagree. It may work if you get someone behind you to raise and then you can re-raise, but if no one behind you raises you're pretty much screwed most of the time. Odds are you're not good enough to lay down your Aces (and maybe not Kings either) later in the hand, so you want as few of callers as possible when you have a big pair. Aces are not as strong against 4-5 other players as you might think. What happens when the big blind hits 2-pair with his 10-5 offsuit because you didn't force him out of the hand with your pre-flop raise? Like I said, you're probably not good enough to get away from the hand, so instead of winning a medium or small sized pot with your pre-flop raise with Aces you're going to end up losing a big pot. I'll take my chances with Aces against any hand, but I will never be confident I'm going to end up with the winning hand when there are more than a couple of pre-flop callers even if I have Aces or Kings.
Now, if you have an average hand or a suited connector, you're going to end up giving your chips away in the long run if you continue to pre-flop limp with them in early position. Sure, when you hit your hand, you can win a good sized pot, but how often do those 5-6 suited cards actually hit? Not very often. Those hands are easy to get away from if you don't connect on the flop, but it still cost you the amount of the big blind just to see that flop. And while it may seem like chump change to see a flop cheap, it will add up to a lot of money lost in the long run. And since there's a lot of players behind you, there's a good chance somebody will raise and you can't call a raise with a crappy hand. So, in that scenario, you just donated the size of the big blind for nothing. If you want to throw money away like that, just deposit a few bucks into my bank account every time you're dealt a marginal hand in early position. If you play often enough, you'll make me a rich man!
So now I'll move onto middle and late position hands you should limp in with. I am assuming a full or nearly full table here (8-11 players)....
Middle position......
Suited connectors ranging from 7-8 to A-Q (anything under J-10 the cards should be within 1 number of each other........that would exclude hands like 10-6 suited or 5-8, etc.)
Any suited Ace ranging from A-7 to A-Q
Unsuited connectors ranging from J-10 to A-Q
Pocket pairs ranging from 7's to 10's
Late position.......
Suited connectors ranging from 5-6 to A-Q (excluding anything like 5-9 or 6-10)
Any suited Ace that is not with a King
Any pocket pair ranging from 2's to J's
Unsuited connectors from 7-8 to A-Q (excluding 7-9 or 7-10)
Small blind.......
Any pocket pair ranging from 2's to J's
Any suited connector other than A-K
Any unsuited connector other than 2 or 3 with a 2,3,4,5,6, or 7
Any 2 suited cards other than A-K
Any unsuited Ace other than A-K
Any unsuited King
Any other hand that is not on that list or on my list below of hands to raise with......FOLD!
Hands to raise with.......
Early position.....
A-Q, suited or not
A-K, suited or not
Pocket pairs ranging from 9's to Aces
Middle position......
A-K, suited or not
Pocket pairs ranging from 9's to Aces
Late position......
A-K, suited or not
Pocket pairs ranging from Q's to Aces
Small blind or big blind....
A-K, suited or not
Pocket pairs ranging from Q's to Aces
Hands to re-raise pre-flop with.....
Early position.....
Pocket pairs ranging from Q's to Aces
Middle position.....
Aces or Kings
Late position.....
Aces or Kings
Small or big blind.....
Aces or Kings
Hands you can just call a raise with pre-flop....
Early position......
Pocket pairs ranging from 10's to J's
A-K, suited or not
A-Q suited
K-Q suited
Middle position.....
Pocket pairs ranging from 10's to J''s
A-K, suited or not
A-Q, suited or not
K-Q suited
Late position.....
Pocket pairs ranging from 8's to Q's
A-K, suited or not
A-Q, suited or not
K-Q, suited or not
J-10 suited
A-J, suited or not
A-10 suited
K-J suited
J-Q suited
Small blind or big blind.....
Pocket pairs ranging from 7's to Q's
A-K, suited or not
A-Q suited
K-Q suited
And maybe I can accept calling a raise in the blinds with hands like A-J, K-Q offsuit, or A-10 suited. Those aren't horrible calls. When choosing to call with hands like that make sure the raise was from someone that you consider a loose player and not some tight player that only plays the nuts. Remember that being in the blinds puts you in the worst position once the flop comes, so if you don't hit you're not in a position to bluff at the pot. So be careful with these hands. They're not as good of hands as you might think, especially in this position.
So now that you know what pre-flop hands to play, you're asking yourself "how much do I raise"?
Good question. My biggest word of advice when raising pre-flop is to raise the same amount regardless of what hand you have. If you just raised to $8 pre-flop with Aces, raise to $8 pre-flop with A-K as well. That way nobody at the table will be able to put you on a hand. Another bit of advice is to not over or under raise. Make just the right raise amount. My suggestion on the amount to pre-flop raise is to raise the amount of the pot plus a small blind amount.
So, let's say that you are in first position and this is a $5-$10 blind game, I would raise to $35. The pot will be $25 after your call ($5 small blind, $10 big blind, your $10 call) and then you'd tack on another $10.
Now let's say you're in late position raising and there are 3 limpers, you would raise to $65. Just remember......size of the pot + the amount of a big blind. Stick to that every time and your opponents won't have a clue what hand you've got.
There are a lot of players that over bet or under bet pre-flop and many of them think they're actually good players. Well, they're not. Because if they were good players, they'd know what a big mistake they were making. Not only are they much easier to put on a hand if you study them enough, but they're also risking putting themself in a bad sitution.
Let me explain......
Let's say you raise pre-flop in first position to $20 in a $1-$2 game with A-K and someone behind you comes over the top with a big raise of $80 with a big pocket pair. Even if you're disciplined enough to get away from the hand, you're still out $20 when you could have been out only $7 had you made the correct raise.
Now, let's take the other side of this argument. Say you make that same $20 raise with pocket Aces and nobody calls. You just made a $20 bet to win $3. But had you just raised to $7, you're more likely to get a couple of callers. Like I said earlier, you don't want a ton of callers, but you also don't want everyone to fold against your big hands or you'll never make any money.
One thing I notice at tables full of amateurs is that people just throw out a bet because it sounds right. They don't stop and think about what the correct bet really is or if they're giving away any patterns in their betting. These are things you need to understand so that players won't pick up your betting patterns. Understand that most players at a low-limit table won't pick up many players' betting patterns, but some will. I can. I assure you of that. That's the main thing I'm paying attention to at a poker table. I'll occassionally pick up a couple of physical tells from a player, but the best way to figure out what hand a player has is to catch their betting patterns. Many players bet a certain amount when they have top pair and bet a different amount when they've got the nuts. And a lot of players will raise a certain amount when they've got a big pocket pair and raise a different amount if they've got A-K or something like that. Picking up your opponents betting patterns isn't easy, so you've got to pay close attention to the game. If you do, you'll figure them out on most amateur players. That's why I advise players to stick to a specific bet pre-flop so that it's more difficult to put you on a hand.
PHYSICAL TELLS...
Since I mentioned I can occasionally pick up on an opponents physical tells, here is my list of those tells.....
1.Glancing at their chips after the flop. You really gotta pay close attention to this and you'll only catch it within a split second after the flop. Not everyone does it but a decent percentage of players will. If you watch someone quickly glance at their chips after the flop comes out, be careful, they've probably got a big hand. It must be something subconscious because a lot of players do this. The problem with this is it is tough to pick up. Like I said, you really have to pay close attention.
2.Long stare at the flop = weak hand. If they stare down the flop, they probably missed.
3.Stare at the flop and then quick head turn away = big hand. Proceed with caution!
4.If your opponent makes a bet and then you ask them if they've got a big hand and they shrug their shoulders or say something like "it's okay", get the heck out of the pot, they've got the nuts!
5.Soft bet = big hand. It's their way of making you think they aren't very strong.
6.Forceful bet = weak hand. It's the exact opposite. They're trying to make you think they're strong by intimidating you with a strong bet with the chips. Chances are, they ain't got squat!
One thing you must know is that opponents will occassionally try and throw you off by acting the exact opposite of these tells. I know that because I'll occassionally do this as well. Sometimes I will stare down the flop when I've got the nuts if I'm up against a decent player just to make him think I've got nothing and then he'll bet into me. Like I said earlier, these physical tells are not easy to pick up on. You have to pay close attention and even when you do that, often times you'll see nothing. So stick to figuring out your opponents betting patterns more than you do the physical tells.
One other tell I felt compelled to mention is picking up on your opponent chasing a draw.....
A lot of players play draws differently, but quite a few amateurs will give away the fact that they're on a draw and if they missed or hit that draw on the river.
One way to catch if your opponent is on a flush draw is if the flop is all of the same suit and you see your opponent check his hole cards and then call your bet. Chances are he's chasing that flush. If he already had a made flush, he'd know it. He's checking to make sure he's got a card that is the same suit as what the flop came. So if the fourth card of that suit comes, be afraid.....be very afraid!
Another way to find out if your opponent missed his flush or straight on the river is if the flop came out with 2 suited cards or a couple of connectors and you got called quick on the flop and the turn and then your opponent stares down the board after the river comes. That means he probably missed his draw. So regardless of what hand you are holding.....BET!!!
Again, you must remember that occasionally a player will try and throw you off with these tells, but the fact is most of the time your opponents are giving away information they don't even realize they're giving you.
The last section of my tips is geared towards getting the proper value on your bet and determining if you're getting the right odds to call......
POT ODDS.....
If you don't understand basic math, poker is not for you. You need to understand pot odds in order to be a successful poker player.
Figuring pot odds out isn't that hard. If there is $100 in the pot and it's a $50 bet to you, you are getting 2-1 on your money. In order to call a bet with 2-1 odds, you need to have at least a 34% chance of winning the hand in order to make the call and often times it's best if you only made that call if your percentage chance of winning the hand is higher than that. If you make a 2-1 call when you're 34% to win the hand, in the long run you will basically break even, give or take a little.
One thing you have to take into consideration is implied odds. If you make a call based on getting the right pot odds, you also need to determine how much more money you can win if you hit your hand. To do that, just take a look at your opponents chip stacks and see if there's even a point to making the call if you're on a draw or if you don't think you've got the best hand. If they have very little chips left, you may want to consider folding your drawing hands because you're not going to get paid off on them if you hit. Now, if they have a lot of money behind, you might want to think otherwise if you are getting the correct odds to call.
Another important point to understand in determining pot odds is you have to put your opponent on a hand first. You may be on a flush draw with a bet to you but are up against a set and so your odds of winning the hand with a flush is less than if he has top pair because even if you hit your flush, the board could still pair up and give him a full house. I discussed above how to put your opponent on a hand and that is to pick up their betting patterns. Once you master that you'll do a better job of putting them on a hand and than it will be easier to figure out if you are getting the right odds to make a call.
Once you put your opponent on a hand, you need to learn what percentage of the time you are going to win the hand. If you're on a flush draw, you will have 9 outs to hit that flush. If you flop 4 cards to a flush, you will hit that flush approximately 36% of the time. Basically, you take your number of out and multiply it by 4 on the flop. If you're on the turn, you would multiply your outs by 2. So a flush draw on the turn will come up on the river about 18% of the time. Now, you might have other outs besides just the flush. For example, let's say you've got A-K of spades and the flop comes J-3-7 with 2 spades and your opponent has Q-J. You not only have the 9 outs for the flush but you've also got 6 more outs (the A and the K). That is 15 outs, so you actually be the favorite in the hand. You're going to end up winning this hand nearly 60% of the time. So, technically, in this scenario you can call any bet.
Here's a chart that will help you determine if you're getting the right odds to make a profitable call (again, remember implied odds as well because that could change these numbers around a bit)....
2-1 odds, you need to be at least 34% to win the hand
3-1 odds, you need to be at least 26%
4-1 odds, you need to be at least 21%
9-1 odds, you need to be at least 11%
The goal of poker if to make profitable bets and calls. If you do that more often than not, you'll end up making money.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Funny Sports Videos on the Web
"Nice butt kicking!!"
This was from the Iowa-Northern Illinois game in 2007. Was the season opener at Soldier Field. Not sure what the heck these announcers were thinking.
This gal lets everyone know her opinions on the college football bowl system. What's wrong with 32 bowl games!? How can you not get excited for a dot com bowl game played before Christmas between a couple of mid-major teams? She just doesn't understand the pageantry of college football!
Ever thought about taking Ron Dayne in your Fantasy Football draft? Neither have I, but only because I don't play fantasy football. But these guys seem to think Ron is an underrated talent and a steal in anyone's fantasy draft. Maybe they're right. The next time I play Fantasy Football (which will be never), I'll snag the NCAA's all-time leading rusher in the 1st round.
Check back often for more great sports videos from YouTube and other internet websites!
LIAR LIAR
Don't worry, this isn't a movie review of that hideous 1990's movie starring the annoying Jim Carey.
Instead, I'll be reviewing yesterday's congressional hearing starring these 2 idiots......
Yesterday's hearings were quite interesting. McNamee stood behind his previous statements about injecting Roger Clemens with steroids and HGH and Clemens continued to deny the allegations. So, the only thing we know is someone committed perjury since one of them was lying under oath. The question is......who is lying?
I think anyone with any mental capacity whatsoever could figure out that Clemens at least lied about some things yesterday. To say he now knows that his wife was injected with HGH before a photo shoot but didn't know at the time is laughable at best. Your wife used HGH and you didn't know about it? To anyone out there that believes this.......I have some land I want to sell you.
But the thing that I felt hurt Roger's case the most was when he said that Andy Pettitte "misremebers" a discussion they had about HGH. Pettitte is quoted as saying that he had a discussion with Clemens in 2003 about his use of performance enhancing drugs. Clemens didn't completely deny the conversation but said that Pettitte "misremebers" the conversation. To quote Ozzie Guillen.......psssshhhtt, please! There is no way Pettitte "misremembered" that type of a conversation with Roger Clemens. If Clemens told him he used performance enhancing drugs, then Pettitte would remember exactly what he said. How could he not?
Once I found out that Pettitte ratted Clemens out, I felt that Clemens no longer had a case. How are we to discredit what Andy Pettitte said? He's best friends with Clemens, so why would he lie under oath that Clemens was a roider? That doesn't make any sense.
So, here is what we know for a fact.......
-Brian McNamee has alleged that he injected Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, and Chuck Knoblauch with performance enhancing drugs.
-Andy Pettitte and Chuck Knoblauch have come forth and admitted to these allegations.
-Roger Clemens' wife has admitted to using HGH and Brian McNamee injected her. This comes days after McNamee made the allegations.
-Andy Pettitte has alleged he had discussions with Roger Clemens about steroids and HGH in which Clemens admitted to using them.
-Roger Clemens has denied all allegations against him by McNamee and Pettitte (both friends of his), and claims he has never used HGH, testosterone, or steroids.
Based just on those FACTS, it's hard to believe Clemens. His buddies are ratting him out, the other people McNamee ratted out have concurred with those allegations, and his wife used HGH.
Now, onto Brian McNamee.......
Do I find Brian McNamee to be of high character? No. That said, do I find him to be reliable in this case? Yes. Like I said above, in the Mitchell Report he made allegations against Chuck Knoblauch and Andy Pettitte that we have since found out to be true. The only other person he made allegations against was Roger Clemens, and Roger has predictably denied them. So, even though it has been proven in the past that McNamee has lied on many occassions, I find it hard to believe he was lying yesterday. He has no reason to lie. He's getting no money out of this, he's risking going to jail by lying, and if he were lying he would be doing it to defame the guy that made him successful and rich.
While I find both Clemens and McNamee to be of low character, I was more impressed yesterday with McNamee. He seemed more believeable than Clemens. I got the feeling Roger was really digging deep to find an answer to a question, whereas McNamee didn't really have to do digging deep in his head to come up with an answer. It was almost like Roger was trying to think what his lawyers told him to say when a certain question came up.
And that brings me to good 'ol Rusty Hardin.....
Rusty, Rusty, Rusty........please tell me you didn't actually go to law school?? In fact, I'd be curious to see proof you actually graduated high school. Every time you open your mouth, you make your client look worse. What in the heck was Clemens thinking by hiring this tool?
Roger's whole defense was poor. It's the worst defense I have ever seen at a steroid congressional hearing. Well, at least since this one......
"I'm not here to talk about the past."
Or was it this one??.........
"I no speaka English!"
I guess, in Roger's defense, at least he didn't wag his finger at the members of Congress!....
"The allegations about me in Mr. Canseco's book are absolutely TRUE!"
To summarize yesterday's hearings......
I believe Brian McNamee is a tool, but I also believe he injected Roger Clemens with performance enhancing drugs. I also believe his lawyer is a moron and that entire congressional hearing was a side show. By the way, did anyone notice that Mitchell Report guy sitting in between Clemens and McNamee? That guy was creepy. He had some odd expressions on his face when other people were talking. He would stare down Clemens and McNamee from time to time, and that had to creep them out. Just thought I would mention that.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
NCAA TOURNAMENT BUBBLE TEAMS
This is my list of teams that are currently on the NCAA Tournament bubble and what they need to do in order to get an at-large berth on Selection Sunday.
(RPI and SOS courtesy of kenpom.com)
DAYTON (Atlantic-10)...... 16-6 overall (4-5 conference). RPI 17. SOS 25. Must get to above .500 in conference and win at least 1 game in conference tourney. I can't imagine a team from the Atlantic-10 will ever get an at-large berth with a .500 or worse conference record despite their RPI and SOS.
MIAMI (ACC)...... 16-7 overall (3-6 conference). RPI 40. SOS 37. Need to get to .500 in the ACC and then I think they'll be a lock simply because there's really only 4 locks from the ACC and I find it hard to believe the selection committee doesn't want at least 5 ACC teams to get in the Big Dance. If they finish 7-9 in the ACC and win a couple of games in the conference tournament, they're in.
WEST VIRGINIA (Big East)...... 16-7 overall (5-5 conference). RPI 42. SOS 38. .500 in the league and they're in even though the Big East already has 6-7 locks. The conference is loaded this year and the committee will reward them for that.
SYRACUSE (Big East)...... 16-8 overall (6-5 conference). RPI 46. SOS 12. .500 in the league gets them in. Tough SOS will impress the committee.
UAB (Conference USA)...... 16-7 overall (6-2 conference). RPI 74. SOS 144. No real impressive wins make them a long-shot, but if they can pull off an upset of Memphis they will be right on the bubble. If not, they're going to need to finish the conference season at 13-3 and get at least a win in the CUSA tourney, otherwise they're headed to the NIT.
ILLINOIS STATE (MVC)...... 17-7 overall (9-4 conference). RPI 49. SOS 75. Basically going to have to win their remaining 5 conference games and bracket buster game to have a chance. Even with that, they still might need 1-2 MVC Tourney wins to get an at-large berth.
ARIZONA STATE (Pac-10)...... 15-7 overall (5-5 conference). RPI 72. SOS 100. Need at least 11 conference wins and 1 Pac-10 tourney win to get in. Pac-10 is strong but ASU lacks a lot of quality wins and a low SOS and RPI will hurt them.
MISSISSIPPI (SEC)...... 17-5 overall (3-5 conference). RPI 31. SOS 66. Just need to finish .500 in the league. If they finish 7-9, they can get into the tournament with a pair of SEC tourney victories.
(RPI and SOS courtesy of kenpom.com)
DAYTON (Atlantic-10)...... 16-6 overall (4-5 conference). RPI 17. SOS 25. Must get to above .500 in conference and win at least 1 game in conference tourney. I can't imagine a team from the Atlantic-10 will ever get an at-large berth with a .500 or worse conference record despite their RPI and SOS.
MIAMI (ACC)...... 16-7 overall (3-6 conference). RPI 40. SOS 37. Need to get to .500 in the ACC and then I think they'll be a lock simply because there's really only 4 locks from the ACC and I find it hard to believe the selection committee doesn't want at least 5 ACC teams to get in the Big Dance. If they finish 7-9 in the ACC and win a couple of games in the conference tournament, they're in.
WEST VIRGINIA (Big East)...... 16-7 overall (5-5 conference). RPI 42. SOS 38. .500 in the league and they're in even though the Big East already has 6-7 locks. The conference is loaded this year and the committee will reward them for that.
SYRACUSE (Big East)...... 16-8 overall (6-5 conference). RPI 46. SOS 12. .500 in the league gets them in. Tough SOS will impress the committee.
UAB (Conference USA)...... 16-7 overall (6-2 conference). RPI 74. SOS 144. No real impressive wins make them a long-shot, but if they can pull off an upset of Memphis they will be right on the bubble. If not, they're going to need to finish the conference season at 13-3 and get at least a win in the CUSA tourney, otherwise they're headed to the NIT.
ILLINOIS STATE (MVC)...... 17-7 overall (9-4 conference). RPI 49. SOS 75. Basically going to have to win their remaining 5 conference games and bracket buster game to have a chance. Even with that, they still might need 1-2 MVC Tourney wins to get an at-large berth.
ARIZONA STATE (Pac-10)...... 15-7 overall (5-5 conference). RPI 72. SOS 100. Need at least 11 conference wins and 1 Pac-10 tourney win to get in. Pac-10 is strong but ASU lacks a lot of quality wins and a low SOS and RPI will hurt them.
MISSISSIPPI (SEC)...... 17-5 overall (3-5 conference). RPI 31. SOS 66. Just need to finish .500 in the league. If they finish 7-9, they can get into the tournament with a pair of SEC tourney victories.
HAWKEYE HOOPS TALK
So 25 games into the Todd Lickliter era and the Hawkeye men's basketball team sits at a miserable 11-14 record (4-8 in the Big-10). So I pose the question.......when will enough be enough? It's time for someone to buy the domain for firetoddlickliter.com. Of course, I'm kidding.....
Saturday's loss at Minnesota was a bit disheartening. Not because Iowa lost, but how they lost. They looked disinterested, unemotional, and not into the game after a solid week with a win over Ohio State and a close loss to Wisconsin. Minnesota has more talent and experience than Iowa, but way too many unforced errors led to this loss. As bad as Iowa played, had they just been able to finish the last 8 minutes of the game strong they would have won. The fact that Iowa lost by double digits to a team that played a truly pathetic ballgame is the most disappointing aspect of this game. 8 minutes to play, Iowa was right there with the Gophers despite turning the ball over what seemed like every other possession. But, as usual, an Iowa basketball team lacks the mental focus to pull out a game like this.
And that brings me to my next point.......STEVE ALFORD
Steve, you were hired by Iowa in 1999 because of one thing...... you could recruit. Tom Davis was the worst recruiter in the history of intercollegiate athletics. Well, until you became the coach at Iowa. Or is that "freakin' Iowa"? I never thought a guy could coach at a quality Big-10 conference program and actually recruit players that had less ability than guys like Greg Helmers, Jim Bartels, and Jason Bauer. But props to you, Coach Alford, you managed to prove me wrong.
Your players were not mentally tough, you could not coach them on fundamentals and that is showing proof this year because our new coach is having to teach them the game of basketball. It didn't matter who was on the team, in the 8 years Steve Alfraud was the coach at Iowa the result on the court was pretty much the same except for the 2005-2006 squad. Steve, it was not the fan's fault you couldn't recruit. It wasn't the fault of a small recruiting base at a school in a remote location. If that was true, Nebraska football wouldn't be what it is today.......well, okay, what it was a few years ago!
The problem, Steve, was you. You had a big name, you had a fan base that drooled all over you and sold out basically every game your first few years. But you simply could not win consistently because you were not a good enough coach. You brought in players that lacked mental toughness and you did not develop players as well as the previous coach did. Iowa will never get Top 10 recruiting classes, but blaming the small recruiting base for the players you brought in is beyond lame. A good coach would have done better. And quite frankly, Steve, you are not a good coach. Period.
Now onto the years team and the future of the Hawkeye basketball program.......
There have been a lot of positives from this season, along with negatives of course. The negatives are that Alford left a stinch around Iowa City that probably won't go away for a couple of years. The positive is we have a coach that is showing why he was hired.......to develop players. This team is improving, and individuals are improving, but it will take Lickliter some time to bring in his own players.
Rumor has it that UNI forward Jordan Engleseder will be transferring to Iowa and that would be a decent pick-up for the 2009 class along with Sioux City's Brennan Cougill. Next years recruiting class looks promising with Iowa City's Matt Gatens coming in along with a quality point guard recruit from Minnesota (Anthony Tucker). After seeing Gatens play a few times last year and once this year, I can say that he is as good of a high school prospect as this state has ever had. He has size, athleticism, an ability to shoot anywhere on the court, and mental toughness. He makes big shots down the stretch of games. He will be the type of player that can create shots for his teamates and himself. I expect him to step in next year and be an immediate contributor.
I do like our 3 freshman from this year (Kelly, Peterson, Cole). They've all shown flashes of being very good Big-10 players but they are all projects, and a coach like Todd Lickliter should be able to develop them. Unfortunately, Jarryd Cole went down with an ACL tear in December because we was really becoming a force down low. Hopefully, he'll be back in full strength next season. Jake Kelly and Jeff Peterson have also shown signs of life at times this year, but like most freshmen, they are inconsistent. I expect major improvements from them next year.
Seth Gorney also has improved this year, especially on defense. In the past, he was inept defensively, but now he has become a quality defensive big man to go along with his decent offensive skills. Cyrus Tate at times has shown improvements as well. Unlike Gorney, he will be back next year. He doesn't make the boneheaded mistakes he made last year much anymore, but he still lacks offensive consistency.
Tony Freeman is becoming a great leader for this team, and next year he'll be even more improved with Gatens coming in. I fully expect Tony to get a lot better looks on the wing with Gatens' ability to drive the lane.
Although Iowa stands at 11-14 right now, this team has a very good opportunity to finish at .500 or better with the remaining schedule being much lighter than it has been the last month or so. 5 of the next 6 games very well could be victories for the Hawkeyes. That would put the Hawks at 16-15 overall and 9-9 in the Big-10. If that happens, Todd Lickliter deserves a lot of credit.
GO HAWKS!
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