Woohoo, spring training is upon us. Pitchers and catchers have been down in Arizona and Florida for a week and within the next couple of days every team will have their full roster in camp. So here is my preview for the 2008 Major League Baseball season.
First things first, I must predict the divisional finishes.....
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL East
1.Boston
2.New York
3.Tampa Bay
4.Toronto
5.Baltimore
AL Central
1.Cleveland
2.Detroit
3.Kansas City
4.Chicago
5.Minnesota
AL West
1.Anaheim
2.Seattle
3.Texas
4.Oakland
AL Wild Card: Detroit
AL Champion: Boston
NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL East
1.New York
2.Philadelphia
3.Atlanta
4.Washington
5.Florida
NL Central
1.Chicago
2.Milwaukee
3.Cincinnati
4.Houston
5.St. Louis
6.Pittsburgh
NL West
1.Arizona
2.Colorado
3.San Diego
4.Los Angeles
5.San Francisco
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia
NL Champion: New York
World Series Champion: Boston Red Sox (3rd time in 5 seasons)
AWARDS:
AL MVP: Vladmir Guerrerro, RF Anaheim
AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett, Boston
AL Manager of Year: Eric Wedge, Cleveland
NL MVP: David Howard, 1B Philadelphia
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, New York
NL Manager of Year: Lou Piniella, Chicago
MLB Power Rankings (all teams)....
1.Boston Red Sox
2.Cleveland Indians
3.New York Mets
4.Anaheim Angels
5.Detroit Tigers
6.Chicago Cubs
7.Arizona Diamondbacks
8.New York Yankees
9.Philadelphia Phillies
10.Seattle Mariners
11.Colorado Rockies
12.Kansas City Royals
13.San Diego Padres
14.Milwaukee Brewers
15.Tampa Bay Devil Rays
16.Cincinnati Reds
17.Atlanta Braves
18.Chicago White Sox
19.Toronto Blue Jays
20.Los Angeles Dodgers
21.Texas Rangers
22.Baltimore Orioles
23.Oakland A's
24.Houston Astros
25.Minnesota Twins
26.St. Louis Cardinals
27.Washington Nationals
28.Florida Marlins
29.San Francisco Giants
30.Pittsburgh Pirates
Teams ranked 1-11 will finish over .500, teams 12-14 will finish right around .500. Teams 14-20 will lose 85-90 games. Teams 21-28 will lose 90-98 games. Teams 29-30 will lose 100-110 games.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Monday, February 18, 2008
POKER TIPS AND ADVICE
I thought today would be a good day to go off topic and discuss one of my favorite hobbies.....poker. I consider myself to be a good amateur player, so I decided I should blog my tips and advice for other amateur players out there.
My tips are specifically for the low-mid level No-Limit Hold 'em games ranging between $1-$2 blinds up to $5-$10 blinds. Many of these tips may not help you much if you're playing other games.
First things first, you need to know what hands to play and when and how to play them......
I am not a fan of early position limping because I think you'll end up losing more money doing this than you think. Position in poker is so important and early position is not good position. So when you're in early position you want to try your best to eliminate as many players behind you as possible. There are a lot of loose players in low-limit hold 'em games, so raising won't eliminate as many players as it would it a higher limit game, but it will eliminate more players than you may think.
The only hands I can understand someone limping in early position is hands like J-Q, K-Q, A-Q, or A-J. I know a lot of players think limping in pre-flop with a big pocket pair is a sneaky and creative play, but I would disagree. It may work if you get someone behind you to raise and then you can re-raise, but if no one behind you raises you're pretty much screwed most of the time. Odds are you're not good enough to lay down your Aces (and maybe not Kings either) later in the hand, so you want as few of callers as possible when you have a big pair. Aces are not as strong against 4-5 other players as you might think. What happens when the big blind hits 2-pair with his 10-5 offsuit because you didn't force him out of the hand with your pre-flop raise? Like I said, you're probably not good enough to get away from the hand, so instead of winning a medium or small sized pot with your pre-flop raise with Aces you're going to end up losing a big pot. I'll take my chances with Aces against any hand, but I will never be confident I'm going to end up with the winning hand when there are more than a couple of pre-flop callers even if I have Aces or Kings.
Now, if you have an average hand or a suited connector, you're going to end up giving your chips away in the long run if you continue to pre-flop limp with them in early position. Sure, when you hit your hand, you can win a good sized pot, but how often do those 5-6 suited cards actually hit? Not very often. Those hands are easy to get away from if you don't connect on the flop, but it still cost you the amount of the big blind just to see that flop. And while it may seem like chump change to see a flop cheap, it will add up to a lot of money lost in the long run. And since there's a lot of players behind you, there's a good chance somebody will raise and you can't call a raise with a crappy hand. So, in that scenario, you just donated the size of the big blind for nothing. If you want to throw money away like that, just deposit a few bucks into my bank account every time you're dealt a marginal hand in early position. If you play often enough, you'll make me a rich man!
So now I'll move onto middle and late position hands you should limp in with. I am assuming a full or nearly full table here (8-11 players)....
Middle position......
Suited connectors ranging from 7-8 to A-Q (anything under J-10 the cards should be within 1 number of each other........that would exclude hands like 10-6 suited or 5-8, etc.)
Any suited Ace ranging from A-7 to A-Q
Unsuited connectors ranging from J-10 to A-Q
Pocket pairs ranging from 7's to 10's
Late position.......
Suited connectors ranging from 5-6 to A-Q (excluding anything like 5-9 or 6-10)
Any suited Ace that is not with a King
Any pocket pair ranging from 2's to J's
Unsuited connectors from 7-8 to A-Q (excluding 7-9 or 7-10)
Small blind.......
Any pocket pair ranging from 2's to J's
Any suited connector other than A-K
Any unsuited connector other than 2 or 3 with a 2,3,4,5,6, or 7
Any 2 suited cards other than A-K
Any unsuited Ace other than A-K
Any unsuited King
Any other hand that is not on that list or on my list below of hands to raise with......FOLD!
Hands to raise with.......
Early position.....
A-Q, suited or not
A-K, suited or not
Pocket pairs ranging from 9's to Aces
Middle position......
A-K, suited or not
Pocket pairs ranging from 9's to Aces
Late position......
A-K, suited or not
Pocket pairs ranging from Q's to Aces
Small blind or big blind....
A-K, suited or not
Pocket pairs ranging from Q's to Aces
Hands to re-raise pre-flop with.....
Early position.....
Pocket pairs ranging from Q's to Aces
Middle position.....
Aces or Kings
Late position.....
Aces or Kings
Small or big blind.....
Aces or Kings
Hands you can just call a raise with pre-flop....
Early position......
Pocket pairs ranging from 10's to J's
A-K, suited or not
A-Q suited
K-Q suited
Middle position.....
Pocket pairs ranging from 10's to J''s
A-K, suited or not
A-Q, suited or not
K-Q suited
Late position.....
Pocket pairs ranging from 8's to Q's
A-K, suited or not
A-Q, suited or not
K-Q, suited or not
J-10 suited
A-J, suited or not
A-10 suited
K-J suited
J-Q suited
Small blind or big blind.....
Pocket pairs ranging from 7's to Q's
A-K, suited or not
A-Q suited
K-Q suited
And maybe I can accept calling a raise in the blinds with hands like A-J, K-Q offsuit, or A-10 suited. Those aren't horrible calls. When choosing to call with hands like that make sure the raise was from someone that you consider a loose player and not some tight player that only plays the nuts. Remember that being in the blinds puts you in the worst position once the flop comes, so if you don't hit you're not in a position to bluff at the pot. So be careful with these hands. They're not as good of hands as you might think, especially in this position.
So now that you know what pre-flop hands to play, you're asking yourself "how much do I raise"?
Good question. My biggest word of advice when raising pre-flop is to raise the same amount regardless of what hand you have. If you just raised to $8 pre-flop with Aces, raise to $8 pre-flop with A-K as well. That way nobody at the table will be able to put you on a hand. Another bit of advice is to not over or under raise. Make just the right raise amount. My suggestion on the amount to pre-flop raise is to raise the amount of the pot plus a small blind amount.
So, let's say that you are in first position and this is a $5-$10 blind game, I would raise to $35. The pot will be $25 after your call ($5 small blind, $10 big blind, your $10 call) and then you'd tack on another $10.
Now let's say you're in late position raising and there are 3 limpers, you would raise to $65. Just remember......size of the pot + the amount of a big blind. Stick to that every time and your opponents won't have a clue what hand you've got.
There are a lot of players that over bet or under bet pre-flop and many of them think they're actually good players. Well, they're not. Because if they were good players, they'd know what a big mistake they were making. Not only are they much easier to put on a hand if you study them enough, but they're also risking putting themself in a bad sitution.
Let me explain......
Let's say you raise pre-flop in first position to $20 in a $1-$2 game with A-K and someone behind you comes over the top with a big raise of $80 with a big pocket pair. Even if you're disciplined enough to get away from the hand, you're still out $20 when you could have been out only $7 had you made the correct raise.
Now, let's take the other side of this argument. Say you make that same $20 raise with pocket Aces and nobody calls. You just made a $20 bet to win $3. But had you just raised to $7, you're more likely to get a couple of callers. Like I said earlier, you don't want a ton of callers, but you also don't want everyone to fold against your big hands or you'll never make any money.
One thing I notice at tables full of amateurs is that people just throw out a bet because it sounds right. They don't stop and think about what the correct bet really is or if they're giving away any patterns in their betting. These are things you need to understand so that players won't pick up your betting patterns. Understand that most players at a low-limit table won't pick up many players' betting patterns, but some will. I can. I assure you of that. That's the main thing I'm paying attention to at a poker table. I'll occassionally pick up a couple of physical tells from a player, but the best way to figure out what hand a player has is to catch their betting patterns. Many players bet a certain amount when they have top pair and bet a different amount when they've got the nuts. And a lot of players will raise a certain amount when they've got a big pocket pair and raise a different amount if they've got A-K or something like that. Picking up your opponents betting patterns isn't easy, so you've got to pay close attention to the game. If you do, you'll figure them out on most amateur players. That's why I advise players to stick to a specific bet pre-flop so that it's more difficult to put you on a hand.
PHYSICAL TELLS...
Since I mentioned I can occasionally pick up on an opponents physical tells, here is my list of those tells.....
1.Glancing at their chips after the flop. You really gotta pay close attention to this and you'll only catch it within a split second after the flop. Not everyone does it but a decent percentage of players will. If you watch someone quickly glance at their chips after the flop comes out, be careful, they've probably got a big hand. It must be something subconscious because a lot of players do this. The problem with this is it is tough to pick up. Like I said, you really have to pay close attention.
2.Long stare at the flop = weak hand. If they stare down the flop, they probably missed.
3.Stare at the flop and then quick head turn away = big hand. Proceed with caution!
4.If your opponent makes a bet and then you ask them if they've got a big hand and they shrug their shoulders or say something like "it's okay", get the heck out of the pot, they've got the nuts!
5.Soft bet = big hand. It's their way of making you think they aren't very strong.
6.Forceful bet = weak hand. It's the exact opposite. They're trying to make you think they're strong by intimidating you with a strong bet with the chips. Chances are, they ain't got squat!
One thing you must know is that opponents will occassionally try and throw you off by acting the exact opposite of these tells. I know that because I'll occassionally do this as well. Sometimes I will stare down the flop when I've got the nuts if I'm up against a decent player just to make him think I've got nothing and then he'll bet into me. Like I said earlier, these physical tells are not easy to pick up on. You have to pay close attention and even when you do that, often times you'll see nothing. So stick to figuring out your opponents betting patterns more than you do the physical tells.
One other tell I felt compelled to mention is picking up on your opponent chasing a draw.....
A lot of players play draws differently, but quite a few amateurs will give away the fact that they're on a draw and if they missed or hit that draw on the river.
One way to catch if your opponent is on a flush draw is if the flop is all of the same suit and you see your opponent check his hole cards and then call your bet. Chances are he's chasing that flush. If he already had a made flush, he'd know it. He's checking to make sure he's got a card that is the same suit as what the flop came. So if the fourth card of that suit comes, be afraid.....be very afraid!
Another way to find out if your opponent missed his flush or straight on the river is if the flop came out with 2 suited cards or a couple of connectors and you got called quick on the flop and the turn and then your opponent stares down the board after the river comes. That means he probably missed his draw. So regardless of what hand you are holding.....BET!!!
Again, you must remember that occasionally a player will try and throw you off with these tells, but the fact is most of the time your opponents are giving away information they don't even realize they're giving you.
The last section of my tips is geared towards getting the proper value on your bet and determining if you're getting the right odds to call......
POT ODDS.....
If you don't understand basic math, poker is not for you. You need to understand pot odds in order to be a successful poker player.
Figuring pot odds out isn't that hard. If there is $100 in the pot and it's a $50 bet to you, you are getting 2-1 on your money. In order to call a bet with 2-1 odds, you need to have at least a 34% chance of winning the hand in order to make the call and often times it's best if you only made that call if your percentage chance of winning the hand is higher than that. If you make a 2-1 call when you're 34% to win the hand, in the long run you will basically break even, give or take a little.
One thing you have to take into consideration is implied odds. If you make a call based on getting the right pot odds, you also need to determine how much more money you can win if you hit your hand. To do that, just take a look at your opponents chip stacks and see if there's even a point to making the call if you're on a draw or if you don't think you've got the best hand. If they have very little chips left, you may want to consider folding your drawing hands because you're not going to get paid off on them if you hit. Now, if they have a lot of money behind, you might want to think otherwise if you are getting the correct odds to call.
Another important point to understand in determining pot odds is you have to put your opponent on a hand first. You may be on a flush draw with a bet to you but are up against a set and so your odds of winning the hand with a flush is less than if he has top pair because even if you hit your flush, the board could still pair up and give him a full house. I discussed above how to put your opponent on a hand and that is to pick up their betting patterns. Once you master that you'll do a better job of putting them on a hand and than it will be easier to figure out if you are getting the right odds to make a call.
Once you put your opponent on a hand, you need to learn what percentage of the time you are going to win the hand. If you're on a flush draw, you will have 9 outs to hit that flush. If you flop 4 cards to a flush, you will hit that flush approximately 36% of the time. Basically, you take your number of out and multiply it by 4 on the flop. If you're on the turn, you would multiply your outs by 2. So a flush draw on the turn will come up on the river about 18% of the time. Now, you might have other outs besides just the flush. For example, let's say you've got A-K of spades and the flop comes J-3-7 with 2 spades and your opponent has Q-J. You not only have the 9 outs for the flush but you've also got 6 more outs (the A and the K). That is 15 outs, so you actually be the favorite in the hand. You're going to end up winning this hand nearly 60% of the time. So, technically, in this scenario you can call any bet.
Here's a chart that will help you determine if you're getting the right odds to make a profitable call (again, remember implied odds as well because that could change these numbers around a bit)....
2-1 odds, you need to be at least 34% to win the hand
3-1 odds, you need to be at least 26%
4-1 odds, you need to be at least 21%
9-1 odds, you need to be at least 11%
The goal of poker if to make profitable bets and calls. If you do that more often than not, you'll end up making money.
My tips are specifically for the low-mid level No-Limit Hold 'em games ranging between $1-$2 blinds up to $5-$10 blinds. Many of these tips may not help you much if you're playing other games.
First things first, you need to know what hands to play and when and how to play them......
I am not a fan of early position limping because I think you'll end up losing more money doing this than you think. Position in poker is so important and early position is not good position. So when you're in early position you want to try your best to eliminate as many players behind you as possible. There are a lot of loose players in low-limit hold 'em games, so raising won't eliminate as many players as it would it a higher limit game, but it will eliminate more players than you may think.
The only hands I can understand someone limping in early position is hands like J-Q, K-Q, A-Q, or A-J. I know a lot of players think limping in pre-flop with a big pocket pair is a sneaky and creative play, but I would disagree. It may work if you get someone behind you to raise and then you can re-raise, but if no one behind you raises you're pretty much screwed most of the time. Odds are you're not good enough to lay down your Aces (and maybe not Kings either) later in the hand, so you want as few of callers as possible when you have a big pair. Aces are not as strong against 4-5 other players as you might think. What happens when the big blind hits 2-pair with his 10-5 offsuit because you didn't force him out of the hand with your pre-flop raise? Like I said, you're probably not good enough to get away from the hand, so instead of winning a medium or small sized pot with your pre-flop raise with Aces you're going to end up losing a big pot. I'll take my chances with Aces against any hand, but I will never be confident I'm going to end up with the winning hand when there are more than a couple of pre-flop callers even if I have Aces or Kings.
Now, if you have an average hand or a suited connector, you're going to end up giving your chips away in the long run if you continue to pre-flop limp with them in early position. Sure, when you hit your hand, you can win a good sized pot, but how often do those 5-6 suited cards actually hit? Not very often. Those hands are easy to get away from if you don't connect on the flop, but it still cost you the amount of the big blind just to see that flop. And while it may seem like chump change to see a flop cheap, it will add up to a lot of money lost in the long run. And since there's a lot of players behind you, there's a good chance somebody will raise and you can't call a raise with a crappy hand. So, in that scenario, you just donated the size of the big blind for nothing. If you want to throw money away like that, just deposit a few bucks into my bank account every time you're dealt a marginal hand in early position. If you play often enough, you'll make me a rich man!
So now I'll move onto middle and late position hands you should limp in with. I am assuming a full or nearly full table here (8-11 players)....
Middle position......
Suited connectors ranging from 7-8 to A-Q (anything under J-10 the cards should be within 1 number of each other........that would exclude hands like 10-6 suited or 5-8, etc.)
Any suited Ace ranging from A-7 to A-Q
Unsuited connectors ranging from J-10 to A-Q
Pocket pairs ranging from 7's to 10's
Late position.......
Suited connectors ranging from 5-6 to A-Q (excluding anything like 5-9 or 6-10)
Any suited Ace that is not with a King
Any pocket pair ranging from 2's to J's
Unsuited connectors from 7-8 to A-Q (excluding 7-9 or 7-10)
Small blind.......
Any pocket pair ranging from 2's to J's
Any suited connector other than A-K
Any unsuited connector other than 2 or 3 with a 2,3,4,5,6, or 7
Any 2 suited cards other than A-K
Any unsuited Ace other than A-K
Any unsuited King
Any other hand that is not on that list or on my list below of hands to raise with......FOLD!
Hands to raise with.......
Early position.....
A-Q, suited or not
A-K, suited or not
Pocket pairs ranging from 9's to Aces
Middle position......
A-K, suited or not
Pocket pairs ranging from 9's to Aces
Late position......
A-K, suited or not
Pocket pairs ranging from Q's to Aces
Small blind or big blind....
A-K, suited or not
Pocket pairs ranging from Q's to Aces
Hands to re-raise pre-flop with.....
Early position.....
Pocket pairs ranging from Q's to Aces
Middle position.....
Aces or Kings
Late position.....
Aces or Kings
Small or big blind.....
Aces or Kings
Hands you can just call a raise with pre-flop....
Early position......
Pocket pairs ranging from 10's to J's
A-K, suited or not
A-Q suited
K-Q suited
Middle position.....
Pocket pairs ranging from 10's to J''s
A-K, suited or not
A-Q, suited or not
K-Q suited
Late position.....
Pocket pairs ranging from 8's to Q's
A-K, suited or not
A-Q, suited or not
K-Q, suited or not
J-10 suited
A-J, suited or not
A-10 suited
K-J suited
J-Q suited
Small blind or big blind.....
Pocket pairs ranging from 7's to Q's
A-K, suited or not
A-Q suited
K-Q suited
And maybe I can accept calling a raise in the blinds with hands like A-J, K-Q offsuit, or A-10 suited. Those aren't horrible calls. When choosing to call with hands like that make sure the raise was from someone that you consider a loose player and not some tight player that only plays the nuts. Remember that being in the blinds puts you in the worst position once the flop comes, so if you don't hit you're not in a position to bluff at the pot. So be careful with these hands. They're not as good of hands as you might think, especially in this position.
So now that you know what pre-flop hands to play, you're asking yourself "how much do I raise"?
Good question. My biggest word of advice when raising pre-flop is to raise the same amount regardless of what hand you have. If you just raised to $8 pre-flop with Aces, raise to $8 pre-flop with A-K as well. That way nobody at the table will be able to put you on a hand. Another bit of advice is to not over or under raise. Make just the right raise amount. My suggestion on the amount to pre-flop raise is to raise the amount of the pot plus a small blind amount.
So, let's say that you are in first position and this is a $5-$10 blind game, I would raise to $35. The pot will be $25 after your call ($5 small blind, $10 big blind, your $10 call) and then you'd tack on another $10.
Now let's say you're in late position raising and there are 3 limpers, you would raise to $65. Just remember......size of the pot + the amount of a big blind. Stick to that every time and your opponents won't have a clue what hand you've got.
There are a lot of players that over bet or under bet pre-flop and many of them think they're actually good players. Well, they're not. Because if they were good players, they'd know what a big mistake they were making. Not only are they much easier to put on a hand if you study them enough, but they're also risking putting themself in a bad sitution.
Let me explain......
Let's say you raise pre-flop in first position to $20 in a $1-$2 game with A-K and someone behind you comes over the top with a big raise of $80 with a big pocket pair. Even if you're disciplined enough to get away from the hand, you're still out $20 when you could have been out only $7 had you made the correct raise.
Now, let's take the other side of this argument. Say you make that same $20 raise with pocket Aces and nobody calls. You just made a $20 bet to win $3. But had you just raised to $7, you're more likely to get a couple of callers. Like I said earlier, you don't want a ton of callers, but you also don't want everyone to fold against your big hands or you'll never make any money.
One thing I notice at tables full of amateurs is that people just throw out a bet because it sounds right. They don't stop and think about what the correct bet really is or if they're giving away any patterns in their betting. These are things you need to understand so that players won't pick up your betting patterns. Understand that most players at a low-limit table won't pick up many players' betting patterns, but some will. I can. I assure you of that. That's the main thing I'm paying attention to at a poker table. I'll occassionally pick up a couple of physical tells from a player, but the best way to figure out what hand a player has is to catch their betting patterns. Many players bet a certain amount when they have top pair and bet a different amount when they've got the nuts. And a lot of players will raise a certain amount when they've got a big pocket pair and raise a different amount if they've got A-K or something like that. Picking up your opponents betting patterns isn't easy, so you've got to pay close attention to the game. If you do, you'll figure them out on most amateur players. That's why I advise players to stick to a specific bet pre-flop so that it's more difficult to put you on a hand.
PHYSICAL TELLS...
Since I mentioned I can occasionally pick up on an opponents physical tells, here is my list of those tells.....
1.Glancing at their chips after the flop. You really gotta pay close attention to this and you'll only catch it within a split second after the flop. Not everyone does it but a decent percentage of players will. If you watch someone quickly glance at their chips after the flop comes out, be careful, they've probably got a big hand. It must be something subconscious because a lot of players do this. The problem with this is it is tough to pick up. Like I said, you really have to pay close attention.
2.Long stare at the flop = weak hand. If they stare down the flop, they probably missed.
3.Stare at the flop and then quick head turn away = big hand. Proceed with caution!
4.If your opponent makes a bet and then you ask them if they've got a big hand and they shrug their shoulders or say something like "it's okay", get the heck out of the pot, they've got the nuts!
5.Soft bet = big hand. It's their way of making you think they aren't very strong.
6.Forceful bet = weak hand. It's the exact opposite. They're trying to make you think they're strong by intimidating you with a strong bet with the chips. Chances are, they ain't got squat!
One thing you must know is that opponents will occassionally try and throw you off by acting the exact opposite of these tells. I know that because I'll occassionally do this as well. Sometimes I will stare down the flop when I've got the nuts if I'm up against a decent player just to make him think I've got nothing and then he'll bet into me. Like I said earlier, these physical tells are not easy to pick up on. You have to pay close attention and even when you do that, often times you'll see nothing. So stick to figuring out your opponents betting patterns more than you do the physical tells.
One other tell I felt compelled to mention is picking up on your opponent chasing a draw.....
A lot of players play draws differently, but quite a few amateurs will give away the fact that they're on a draw and if they missed or hit that draw on the river.
One way to catch if your opponent is on a flush draw is if the flop is all of the same suit and you see your opponent check his hole cards and then call your bet. Chances are he's chasing that flush. If he already had a made flush, he'd know it. He's checking to make sure he's got a card that is the same suit as what the flop came. So if the fourth card of that suit comes, be afraid.....be very afraid!
Another way to find out if your opponent missed his flush or straight on the river is if the flop came out with 2 suited cards or a couple of connectors and you got called quick on the flop and the turn and then your opponent stares down the board after the river comes. That means he probably missed his draw. So regardless of what hand you are holding.....BET!!!
Again, you must remember that occasionally a player will try and throw you off with these tells, but the fact is most of the time your opponents are giving away information they don't even realize they're giving you.
The last section of my tips is geared towards getting the proper value on your bet and determining if you're getting the right odds to call......
POT ODDS.....
If you don't understand basic math, poker is not for you. You need to understand pot odds in order to be a successful poker player.
Figuring pot odds out isn't that hard. If there is $100 in the pot and it's a $50 bet to you, you are getting 2-1 on your money. In order to call a bet with 2-1 odds, you need to have at least a 34% chance of winning the hand in order to make the call and often times it's best if you only made that call if your percentage chance of winning the hand is higher than that. If you make a 2-1 call when you're 34% to win the hand, in the long run you will basically break even, give or take a little.
One thing you have to take into consideration is implied odds. If you make a call based on getting the right pot odds, you also need to determine how much more money you can win if you hit your hand. To do that, just take a look at your opponents chip stacks and see if there's even a point to making the call if you're on a draw or if you don't think you've got the best hand. If they have very little chips left, you may want to consider folding your drawing hands because you're not going to get paid off on them if you hit. Now, if they have a lot of money behind, you might want to think otherwise if you are getting the correct odds to call.
Another important point to understand in determining pot odds is you have to put your opponent on a hand first. You may be on a flush draw with a bet to you but are up against a set and so your odds of winning the hand with a flush is less than if he has top pair because even if you hit your flush, the board could still pair up and give him a full house. I discussed above how to put your opponent on a hand and that is to pick up their betting patterns. Once you master that you'll do a better job of putting them on a hand and than it will be easier to figure out if you are getting the right odds to make a call.
Once you put your opponent on a hand, you need to learn what percentage of the time you are going to win the hand. If you're on a flush draw, you will have 9 outs to hit that flush. If you flop 4 cards to a flush, you will hit that flush approximately 36% of the time. Basically, you take your number of out and multiply it by 4 on the flop. If you're on the turn, you would multiply your outs by 2. So a flush draw on the turn will come up on the river about 18% of the time. Now, you might have other outs besides just the flush. For example, let's say you've got A-K of spades and the flop comes J-3-7 with 2 spades and your opponent has Q-J. You not only have the 9 outs for the flush but you've also got 6 more outs (the A and the K). That is 15 outs, so you actually be the favorite in the hand. You're going to end up winning this hand nearly 60% of the time. So, technically, in this scenario you can call any bet.
Here's a chart that will help you determine if you're getting the right odds to make a profitable call (again, remember implied odds as well because that could change these numbers around a bit)....
2-1 odds, you need to be at least 34% to win the hand
3-1 odds, you need to be at least 26%
4-1 odds, you need to be at least 21%
9-1 odds, you need to be at least 11%
The goal of poker if to make profitable bets and calls. If you do that more often than not, you'll end up making money.
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